As I write this, there are less than five days until California votes.
In June, I wrote that neither candidate in this race was prepared to lead a $100 billion state agency. In July, I told you what to do about it — get your goals clear, build your monitoring habits, anchor your board in something that won’t change with the political winds.
A lot of you listened. I’ve heard from board members across the state who ran goal-setting workshops over the summer, who started doing monthly data reviews, who finally put their governance calendars on a student-outcomes rhythm instead of a compliance one. Good. That work will pay off no matter what happens Tuesday.
But now we’re in the final stretch, and there’s one more thing you need to hear before November 3.
The outcome matters less than what you do in the 72 hours after.
Let me explain.
What to Watch on Election Night
The pundits will focus on one question: who won? That’s the wrong question for school board members. Here’s what you should actually be tracking:
1. The margin.
A blowout produces a mandate. A close race produces a fight for relevance. If either candidate wins by five points or more, expect them to move aggressively in the first 90 days — they’ll read the result as a public endorsement of their full platform. If the margin is under three points, expect the first year to be largely reactive, dominated by conflict with the legislature and the other half of the electorate that voted against them.
Watch the margin, not just the name.
2. Down-ballot patterns.
Which state legislative seats flipped? Which local school board races broke in unexpected directions? The new superintendent’s actual power depends heavily on whether their party gained or lost seats in the state assembly and senate. A Shaw win with a divided legislature looks very different than a Shaw win with a conservative wave. Same for Barrera. The superintendent can propose all day — the legislature appropriates. Read the full board, not just the top line.
3. Turnout in your district.
Look at how your community voted — not just for superintendent, but down the whole ballot. High turnout for one candidate signals the energy in your local political ecosystem. That energy will show up at your board meetings next year, directed at whatever the new superintendent is pushing. Boards that know what’s coming can prepare. Boards that ignore it get ambushed.
What a Shaw Administration Means — Updated
Since July, Shaw has solidified her base without expanding it much. Her closing message has been a firehose of parental rights rhetoric, curriculum transparency pledges, and promises to “clean house” at CDE. She’s not courting moderates. She’s banking on turnout from the coalition that got her through the primary.
If she wins, here’s what’s changed since my July analysis:
The operational challenge isn’t policy — it’s capacity. Shaw has no transition team. No agency experience. No internal pipeline of qualified appointees. Even if you agree with every item on her agenda, the practical reality is that a Shaw administration will take months to staff up and find its footing. During that window, your board has more autonomy than it will have for the rest of her term. Use it.
The parental notification fight becomes real — but not immediate. Shaw can’t unilaterally mandate statewide policy. She can, however, use her office’s bully pulpit to amplify parent complaints against local boards that resist her agenda. Boards that have clear, defensible policies on parental engagement — not just parental notification — will be able to point to something concrete. Boards that have nothing will be fighting a narrative war from a defensive position.
The “local control” promise is a double-edged sword. Shaw’s campaign has been about returning power to local boards. That sounds great — and I’m a believer in authentic local governance. But “local control” in practice usually means “local boards take the heat for unpopular state decisions the superintendent can’t implement on her own.” If Shaw wins, your board may find itself with more discretion and more exposure at the same time.
What a Barrera Administration Means — Updated
Barrera’s closing message has been disciplined: I’m the only one who knows how the department works, and I’ll protect California’s schools from the culture war. He’s consolidated the establishment vote — unions, charter networks, Democratic party infrastructure, and the endorsements of every living former state superintendent.
If he wins, here’s the update:
Expect faster execution. Barrera already works inside CDE. He knows the bureaucracy, the budget cycles, the regulatory calendar. A Barrera administration will have a transition plan before the ballots are certified. Boards should expect policy guidance within the first 30 days, not the first 90. That’s faster, not necessarily easier.
Equity frameworks become real compliance obligations. Not suggestions. The infrastructure Barrera has built in San Diego — equity dashboards, disparity audits, resource reallocation formulas — will become templates for state guidance. Boards that already have equity goals will need to align them with state definitions. Boards that don’t will need to build from scratch under a deadline.
The funding shift accelerates. Barrera’s platform ties increased education funding to accountability measures that favor districts with strong union relationships and progressive policy alignment. If your district has been running lean on student supports because of funding constraints, this could be a net positive. If your district has been resisting union partnerships or equity frameworks, expect the funding formulas to penalize that resistance.
The One Thing That Hasn’t Changed
None of this analysis tells you who to vote for. That’s not my job. What I can tell you — from watching school boards navigate exactly this kind of uncertainty for over a decade — is that your board’s response to the election outcome matters more than the outcome itself.
Here’s the pattern I’ve seen in district after district:
- The boards that panic and pivot to political positioning lose two years of student progress.
- The boards that hunker down and focus on their existing goals — monitoring them, communicating them, holding themselves accountable to them — weather the transition and keep improving.
That’s not wishful thinking. It’s what the data from the boards I’ve coached shows. Clear goals plus disciplined monitoring equals stable outcomes regardless of who’s in Sacramento.
The week after the election, your board should meet — even if it’s not a regular meeting — and ask exactly three questions:
- What changed? What does the election outcome actually mean for our district’s operational reality?
- What didn’t? What are our student outcome goals, and are they still the right ones?
- What will we do next? What’s one governance practice we’ll strengthen over the next 90 days to protect our focus?
That’s it. Three questions. One meeting. And your board stays on the path that serves students, not the one dictated by whoever happens to be in the corner office two hundred miles away.
Come Wednesday morning, California will know who its next superintendent is. Your students won’t notice — unless your board lets the outcome distract them from the work.
Don’t let it.
This is the fourth piece in our California Superintendent Race content series. Read the first: “California Just Picked Two School Board Presidents to Run Its Schools. Neither Is Ready.”, the second: “Preparing for Either Outcome: What California School Boards Should Do Right Now”, and the companion: “Two School Board Presidents Just Made the Runoff”.
If your board wants to build the kind of governance discipline that survives any political transition, I can help. Email me: aj@effectiveschoolboards.com