00:00 — 00:05
Here's a number that should keep every board member up at night.

00:05 — 00:11
Sixty-seven percent.

00:11 — 00:16
That's the probability your superintendent will leave within one year of the next board election.

00:16 — 00:22
Jason Grissom's research at Vanderbilt tracked this across hundreds of districts.

00:22 — 00:27
When the board turns over, the superintendent starts packing.

00:27 — 00:33
Why?

00:33 — 00:38
Because every new board majority comes with its own agenda.

00:38 — 00:44
The superintendent who was executing a five-year strategic plan suddenly answers to a board that didn't vote for that plan.

00:44 — 00:49
The RAND Corporation found this isn't politics — it's governance instability.

00:49 — 00:55
New members often don't know what they don't know.

00:55 — 01:00
They demand course corrections that unravel years of work.

01:00 — 01:06
And a superintendent search costs districts anywhere from thirty to over a hundred thousand dollars.

01:06 — 01:11
Plus eighteen months of stalled progress.

01:11 — 01:17
The fix isn't to stop elections.

01:17 — 01:23
It's to make sure every candidate — every single one — understands the difference between governance and management before they take the oath.

01:23 — 01:28
Sources: Grissom et al., "Superintendent Turnover and School Board Elections" (Vanderbilt) · RAND Corporation, "Superintendent Pipeline" (2023) · AASA Superintendent Survey (2018-2024)